New home loan rise, but fails to impress

Written By Unknown on Senin, 15 Oktober 2012 | 12.21

THE number of new housing finance commitments has risen but economists say the underlying trend is that housing activity remains weak.

New home loans approved were up 1.8 per cent in August, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) figures released on Monday.

That follows a 0.7 per cent fall in July but a 1.3 per cent rise in June.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said the housing finance figures had been volatile lately and were below the levels of 2009.

"Although the headline release is fairly encouraging, the flow of commitments continues to track at relatively low levels," he said.

Mr Kennedy said a surge in new housing financing commitments had yet to materialise after the interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in May and June.

Uncertainty over the European debt crisis and that the commercial banks had not been passing on the RBA rate cuts in full were not encouraging people to take out new home loans but that could change in the last few months of the year, he said.

"It will be interesting to see whether new loan commitments experience any sort of lift following the constructive measures taken by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve as well as the RBA's October interest rate cut."

JP Morgan expected one more interest rate cut by the RBA before the end of the year and Mr Kennedy said he didn't see Monday's data changing that forecast.

The official data also showed a 13.9 per cent rise in finance for the purchase of new homes in August, but that came after a 7.1 per cent fall in July.

Total housing finance by value rose 0.6 per cent in August, although this was offset by a 1.1 per cent fall in July.

National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis said the August housing finance figures were unspectacular.

"Where the demand responses in recent months have been more prominent, it's been tilted toward new housing," he said.

"Rises were more concentrated in lending approvals for the purchase of new homes.

"The increase is ever so slight and apparently not sufficient to arrest what's been a steady-to-declining monthly growth in the outstanding value of housing credit through to August."

Mr de Garis said he expected the RBA to next cut the cash rate when its board met in November on Melbourne Cup Day.


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